We have only three games left in the NFL's 2009 season folks and then we dive into the "black hole of nothing to watch" which swallows us alive for the next 8 months. Sure, some of us who are football junkie's will await the free agency signing period, but that will likely be clouded with the Collective Bargaining Agreement going by the wayside on March 5th. Those of us with the NFL Network will watch some of the Combine workout. Even the draft this year has changed, the NFL decided to spread the 7 round draft over 3 days of television coverage. Really? This will be a very confused and chaotic off season especially with the possibility of an owner's lockout looming for 2011. The only good news is that after this weekend, I might never have to watch another Jimmy Football Tailgate tested Tailgate approved Budweiser commercial ever again, quite possibly the worst commercial campaign ever created for a Budweiser product.
Prior to last weekend, nearly everyone (except Jets fans) expected the San Diego Chargers and Indianapolis Colts squaring off this Sunday. I guess teams which lay down late in the season should be careful for what they wish for because Indy, look who's coming to dinner on Sunday. The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets are a good, solid defensive football team with a running attack which averaged over 170 yards a game in the regular season. Coached by Rex Ryan, son of Buddy Ryan(Google him if you are too young to remember the 1985 Chicago Bears) the Jets are playing very physical smart football right now. While watching the Chargers-Jets game this past Sunday, I thought back to the Ravens of 2000 and my beloved Buccaneers of 2002. All three teams finished the season with the number 1 ranked defense in the NFL. All three had strong running games and the numbers are strikingly similar. The 2000 Ravens scored an average of 20.8 points and yielded 10.3. The 2002 Bucs scored 21.6 points for and surrendered 12.2 per game. This year's Jets are putting up 22 a game and allowing 15 through the playoffs. Yes, the Ravens and Bucs both won the Super Bowl in those years and defense does win championships. Will defense translate into the first Jets Super Bowl in 41 years this year? No.
The difference between the Super Bowl winning teams from the Ravens and Buccaneers in comparison to this years Jets, is the quarterback position. In 2000, the Ravens had a pedestrian Trent Dilfer under center. The Fresno State product had a strong arm in Tampa but when he arrived in Baltimore, he was coached into the position of a game manager. Jon Gruden took over the reigns in Tampa at the start of the 2002 season and inherited a 33 year old journeyman quarterback in Brad Johnson. Brad was another game manager in Gruden's version of the West Coast Offense.
What is lacking for the Jets, is leadership under center. Mark Sanchez is a true rookie quarterback who has benefited from a strong defense and running game with the Jets running over 60% of the time. Sanchez turned the ball over 20 times this season while having 5 games with multiple interceptions. He only threw for more than 200 yards 4 times, never completed more than 20 passes in a game, and only 5 times had 30 or more attempts. If the Colts jump out to a quick double digit lead, I think Sanchez isn't prepared to lead this team back from a deficit to win.
What to look for from the Jets-
Very obvious here. More of the same. Shonn Greene has been on a tear in the last four games, with 73 carries-420 yards and a 6.0 yard per carry average. Shonn is starting to take over the lead back role for the Jets, though the ageless Thomas Jones is still effective.
The Jets defense must mix up their schemes, though Peyton Manning is the best in the game at changing up plays at the line. Again, the obvious is defensive line pressure on Manning, but I seriously think the pressure is going to have to be applied by the Jets secondary by closing off the second and third receiver if they want to win.
The Jets need to keep this game close at half-time. Manning saw the Jets in week 15 when they needed to win and the Colts were laying back.
What to look for from the Colts-
Indianapolis's running game isn't as strong as New York's. I forecast some token running plays early on in the game but the majority of plays should be with a single back either left in to pick up a blitzer if the Jets mount a pass rush or swinging the back outside to create a mismatch on the linebacker.
I expect to see many three step drop passes and slant patterns. Jets cornerback Darelle Revis, the best cover corner in the league, last week against the Chargers, rotated off Vincent Jackson. I'll be interested to see if he matches up all game against Reggie Wayne, or the defense scheme rotates him over to cover Dallas Clark. Either way, I don't expect the usual stars to shine against this defense. Look for either Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie in the 3 wide set to excel and one of them will have a surprisingly big day.
Performance predictions-
Jets-
Shonn Grenne- 21-94-1TD
Thomas Jones-13-44-0
Mark Sanchez-19-31-172-1TD-2INT
Colts-
Joseph Addai/Donald Brown combined- 24-65 yards-1TD
Pierre Garcon-7-88-1TD
Reggie Wayne-8-90-0
Dallas Clark-7-66-1TD
Peyton Manning-27-40-277-2TD-1INT
Final Score-
Indy20- New York 16
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