Friday, November 27, 2009

71 days until the Super Bowl and counting.........

The NFL season is too damn short. Fans of the game try to fill their love of the game by watching empty events such as the scouting combine, the draft, many of us huddle around to see who goes where at the start of free agency, and can't wait for training camp to open when we know all teams start anew and everyone is undefeated. It feels as if the season just started and now, there are 71 days until the culmination of the season this year in Miami.

My selections of the Vikings and Saints playing in the NFC Championship looks like it might be a reality. My fantasy teams (5) are all in first place in their respective divisions. Finally, my 3-4 win season for the Bucs looks to be a bit too generous.

The straight up pics last week went 12-4 and yesterday's choices were 2-1, that brings my documented picks on this blog so far this season to 115-47. Let's get to this week's selections.

Bengals vs. Browns. Brady Quinn had 27 fantasy points last week. He must have had some of that energy drink he pimps on tv before the game because I have no idea where that outburst of production came from. The Bengals, fell right into the trap game against Oakland. The Bengals (my Bengal cat Jasmine's favorite team) is at home and 5-0 vs. the division opponents. Cleveland is 0-4 in division. Jasmine is happy at 4:30pm EST as the Bengals cruise to a easy win.

Vikings vs. Bears. The ageless wonder, Lord Favre is showing no signs of breaking down as he did last season with the Jets. Then again, not every team has Adrian Petersen. The Bears offensive line is horrible and the Vikings will manhandle the Bears all afternoon. Vikings advance to 10-1.

Eagles vs Crackheads. I've been waiting to see Philly make a move towards a wildcard playoff spot, and now that the New York Football Giants got destroyed last night, Sunday's game will be the venue. These divisional games are always close and I think I will take the Crackheads +9 but the Eagles will win.

Miami Mullets vs. Toronto Bills. Ricky Williams has been reported over the past week with a chest injury, but worry not Mullet fans, he scores twice and you stay in the hunt for a wild card spot for at least another week at 6-5.

Seahawks vs Rams. Rams RB Stephen Jackson has missed practices this week and is experiencing back spasms. It's no wonder he has back spasms because this 30+ year old running back is trying to carry the entire team on his back. He's gotten 95 carries in the last 4 games, not to mention the catches out of the backfield. The only player with more total yards from scrimmage this year to date is Chris Johnson. Seahawks win this one.

Falcons vs Bucs. Will it be Turner or Snelling in the backfield for the Falcons? It looks like a game time decision. The Bucs are floundering badly. The OC was fired days before the start of the season and now Jim Bates has been replaced with Junior Morris calling the defense. Wasn't that what he was hired to do a year ago? The Falcons are trying to get over the stigma of never having back to back winning seasons in their franchise history and currently sit at 5-5. Matty Ice has suffered somewhat of a sophomore slump at quarterback this season. The Falcons are going to win this but I'm taking the Bucs +13 in my parlay.

Jets-Panthers. The Panthers have actually been playing better in the past few weeks, and the duo in the Carolina backfield will have success against a weak D-Line of the Jets. Steve Smith gets shut down by Jets CB Revis, but nothing new there. Carolina is playing in the Meadowlands, temps are in the mid 50's and light winds. They win by a field goal.

49'er's vs Jaguars. This in my mind is one of the most difficult games this week to forecast. Both teams are all over the radar screen. Early injury reports show that MJD and MSW both missed some practice this week and are now listed as probable with knee ailments. Jacksonville has not had a very good record traveling West this season, but I sense they know they are deep in the hunt for a wildcard spot and will pull out a win on their trip to Nancy Pelosi's hometown.

Chargers vs Chiefs. I look like Einstien this week after taking the Chiefs +11 last week and they won straight up. I'm taking the Chiefs +14 again this week but the Chargers will win this game.

Colts vs. Texans. These two teams played 3 weeks ago, and the Texans missed sending that matchup into overtime by a very nearly missed wide left field goal attempt as time ran out. These two teams know each other very well. Indy beat the Texans week 9 at home by 3, beat the Patriots by 1 and went on the road a beat the Ravens by 2. I'm picking the Texans to beat the Colts this week and I'm taking the 4 points the Texans are getting.

Titans vs Cardinals. The Titans are 4-0 since Vince Young became the quarterback. The Cardinals are 5-0 on the road. Kurt Warner has some injury issues, and the Titans are starting to play some pretty good defense. I'm going with the hot hand and VY to go 5-0.

Steelers vs. Ravens. During the early part of the season, many fantasy football "experts" said they were Wacko for Flacco. Well, they were just plain wacko. Joe Flacco has suffered the same sophomore slump that Matt Ryan has, and isn't putting up the numbers he did in the first month of this season. There were early week questions as to whether or not Big Ben would be starting this week, but all signs seem to point to yes as of now. This will, no doubt, be yet another very close game, but the Steelers prevail and keep marching towards the playoffs.

Monday Night Football
Saints vs. Patriots-

I can't wait to listen to Jon Gruden on Monday night football. I've waited to watch this game since the schedule was released. Prior to the start of the season I predicted a Vikings/Saints NFC Championship game. On week 6 I predicted a Saints appearance in the Super Bowl. This game is going to be a classic. Drew Brees has the quickest release of a quarterback I've seen since Dan Marino. The Superdome is a difficult place to play when the Saints are winning, and this season, the Patriots are 1-3 on the road. I expect a very high scoring game, but the Saints advance to 11-0 after winning 37-31.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

11-3 at 7pm Sunday

My straight up pics are currently 11-3 this week. We still have Philly and Chicago tonight and Tennessee vs. Houston Monday night. Thanksgiving screws everything up this coming week. I won't be around so I'll make my picks for Turkey day right now on Sunday night.

Green Bay vs. Detroit. Detroit screwed me good on one of my parlay cards, the Lions and Browns scored 75 points combined? Are you freaking kidding me? Green Bay takes care of Detroit easily.

Oakland vs. Dallas. I had Oakland +11 and the Washington Crackheads +12 this weekend. Don't expect Oakland to win coming into Dallas this week.

New York Football Giants vs. Denver. Denver has now lost the 4th game in a row, I predicted this collapse on week 5 of the NFL season. The Giants win.


I'll address the rest of the games played on Sunday later next week.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

This Sunday is 9 years

Thanksgiving has become a melancholy time of year for me over the past several years. My neighbor and the man I considered to be the closest thing to a brother I ever had, died suddenly, the day before Thanksgiving 2000. This year the anniversary of his death will be on Sunday, the 22nd. Peter was a great family man, a hard worker who excelled at his craft, was fanatical about fishing, the only flaw was he was a hockey fan, not a football fan ( just kidding buddy-you might still be sore I beat you at fantasy hockey)

It's really interesting how you arrive at different points in your life. I met Peter by chance through an ex-girlfriend. The house my wife and I live in now is a direct result of meeting Peter. The house nextdoor to Pete's was available to rent and while the ex-girlfriend was kicked out shortly after we moved in, Pete and I became very close friends. Over a few years, I bonded with Pete and his family. During the evenings I was either over at his house, or he was over at my house. In the late 1990's, and the advent of the ultra fast 14.4 dial up modems with computers using Windows 3.1, we were always tweaking our operating systems or downloading some new program. Pete would crash his system just so he could rebuild it, because he could.

If it weren't for Pete, I would never have ever owned a cat. Pete's mother went to her car one morning, while getting ready to start the car, she heard a noise. That noise was a tiny little furball kitten cuddled up on her engine which ended up at my house and since she was alone, I named her Orphie, short for Orphan. Orph was a large part of my life for 13 years.

Pete was one of the most intelligent people I've ever met in my life. His trade in Ft Myers was installing ceramic tile. During periods of bad weather or fishery closures, I'd work with him. I'll never forget his mantra, " You SET Tile, you LAY women and carpeting". Nine years later, I run into people that still say they haven't seen anyone make the tile cuts he could do. Pete, I'll never forget that job we did out at South Seas.

Peter introduced me into the world of politics. He made me really think about things from a different point of view. He inspired me to seek out an appointment to the Gulf Council advisory panel, and unfortunately, he missed my appointment. He missed my Governor's recommendation of appointment to the full voting Council. He missed my trips to Washington, my visit to the floor of the US Senate in full session to get a buyout of fishermen in 2oo5.

Pete's missed out on alot of things I wish I could tell him about. But what I miss telling him about the most is Karen and I getting married. Karen and Pete would have been great friends. I miss you so much buddy, and if you think the Bush V. Gore election was crazy, you'd be out of your mind crazy with whats happening these days. You're not forgotten Pete. I think about you every single day, and those you knew, think about you as well. I wish you were still here.

PETER EDWARD DAVIS JR.
September 20, 1955- November 22, 2000.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Week 11, can you believe it already??????

I know, it's Monday night and I'm making my picks already for this weeks games. We've gotten into the part of the NFL season where Thursday night games come into play and the so-called experts on sites such as ESPN wait until Friday morning to reveal their Thursday night picks. Well, that doesn't help you if you are betting straight up in a pick'em football pool which includes the Thursday night game does it? Nope. Not to mention I'll be on the water for a few days, so might as well get this out of the way now.

I told you loyal readers last week I would not go 8-5 again this week. I delivered on that promise. I went 11-3, and I would have gone 12-3 had I included my pick of Carolina over Atlanta but I omitted it so my season straight up record is now 101-42. That's pushing over 70% (the record is right here online-week by week picks) and I know some folks have won money from my picks, I appreciate my free food and drinks so far this season from Lee Roy Selmons pick 63.

I've got to start this week's column with the question WHY? Why did the Cleveland Browns get a home Monday Night Football game this year? Generally, teams with decent winning records and popular fan bases get primetime games based on the previous year's record. Cleveland has scored 5 offensive touchdowns in it's last 60 quarters of football, hardly a compelling draw for MNF. Outside of Cleveland and Baltimore, I'd bet more people watched the Oprah/Sarah Palin interview today than the football game tonight. I know I was watching the new 5 part World War II series on the History Channel, only checking in to see how Ray Rice was doing for my fantasy team. The Bucs won the Super Bowl (that would be Super Bowl 37 for my Eagles friends reading)
and then opened the season ON THE ROAD on Monday Night Football. Yeah, it was in Philly, and we kicked their ass again in their brand new stadium, but, every Super Bowl winner since has had a home game, primetime since. I'm not too worried about Monday Night Football, playoffs or the like with the Bucs right now so let's move on.

Speaking of the Bucs, I don't believe my desire to see Junior Morris replaced at the end of the season will be realized anytime soon. Jon Gruden just agreed to a long term extension on his ESPN contract today, meaning he will be in the announcer booth for the remainder of his Bucs contract and the tightwad Glazers will have to pay him over 3 million for the next two years while he collects from ESPN as well. Good for you Jon. I do think however, that Junior Morris will remain on the sidelines for the Bucs, regardless of what happens this season. It is looking more and more like a Collective Bargaining Agreement won't be reached and 2010 will be an uncapped season, which will result in what most are saying, an owners lockout in 2011. With such uncertainty, and the cheap owners of the Bucs, why hire a high profile coach only to watch him draw a multi million dollar check and go flats fishing for snook and redfish while the owners lock out the players from playing football. Yup. Welcome to the 1980's Bucs fans.

The Bye weeks are finally over (not that that matters to anyone who doesn't play fantasy football, but, ya freaking-hoo) Wimps need injury reports, I call'em as I see 'em. How about you limp dicks over at ESPN? You don't have an "expert" who is beating my record yet this season. My record is here online for the past two years, Now on to this weeks games:

Thursday Night:
Miami @ Carolina- Both teams coming off a short week. Miami has Ronnie Brown down with injury. Carolina wins.

Washington Crackheads @ Dallas Cowboys- The Crackheads got me on my parlay this week. I took Denver and gave the points, then out of no where, the Crackhead defense takes Kyle Orton out of the game and then Denver is forced to put in, the spleenless Chris Simms, who goes 3-14 for 7 yards and Denver loses again. (more later on that) Dallas is playing at home and Jerry Jones is pissed they hell off after that showing in Green Bay on Sunday. Dallas wins.

Cleveland @ Detroit- WOW. Must I make a pick in this one? Thank God I'm not in this tv market. Detroit wins simply because they are at home. I'll be shocked to see if 30,000 fans show up for the game.

San Fran @ Green Bay- I really thought Dallas would beat Green Bay at home last week after their poor showing in Tampa. Green Bay has really got to dig deep in the coming schedule if they want to make the playoffs. Green Bay wins this week, but the playoffs.............in question.

Pittsburgh @Kansas City- I took Cincy and the points last week, but I thought Pittsburgh would win. Cincy is balling right now but take Pittsburgh against a horrible Kansas City team.

Atlanta @ New York Football Giants- The Giants were a bit overhyped this preseason, and when they shot out of the gate at 5-0, everyone was getting ready for a Manning brother Super Bowl. Atlanta, as a franchise, has never posted back to back winning seasons since 1966, and it's looking like that trend might continue this year. I'm taking the Giants to be very motivated this week off the bye which saw Philly lose another game.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay- Brees throws for 300 yards and three scores, Saints win by 13 points, my only question is can Aquib Talib shut down Colston one to one? Bucs lose, Saints win.

Buffalo @ Jacksonville- What is up with Jacksonville? One week they look like a playoff contender, the next? I had Jax+7 in the parlay this week and they won straight up. Buffalo is horrible in run defense, I see Jacksonville beating Buffalo and MJD running for 150 and 2, maybe 3 scores.

Indy @ Baltimore- Baltimore played with lots of emotion tonight, they will be on a short week, Peyton Manning coming to town, Indy goes 10-0.

Seattle @ Minnesota- I really felt once Matt Hasselbeck got back behind center, that Seattle would make a run for the NFC West title. Not so much now. Hasslebeck is 34 but playing like he's 50. Favre is 41 and playing like he's 25. Favre has lots of toys around him though Hasselbeck doesn't have. Minnesota goes to 9-1.

Arizona @St Louis- This doesn't warrant disscussion. Arizona easily.

NY Jets @ New England- Whoa boy. I feel sorry to be a New York Jet this coming week. They got beat at home by the Jaguars, and now they have to travel to New England and face a pissed off Patriots team. New England wins by double digits in a key division game.

Cincy @ Oakland- Benson might be out for Cincy, doesn't matter, Palmer throws for 300 and 3 scores.

San Diego @ Denver- This is going to be a great game. I predicted, when the Broncos were 5-0, that they would be the first team in NFL history to go 5-0 and miss the playoffs, let me search the archieves.............. (October 16th) Chargers are on fire right now and the NFL figured out how to beat the Broncos. San Diego wins. Norv Turner figures out how to hang onto his job one more year, again..........

October 16th, 2009.
Monday night-
Denver-San Diego. Denver has come out of the gate strong, winning games they shouldn't have won(see Cincinnati) and beating weak opponents (see Dallas) and last week winning a game outright against the overrated Patriots in overtime. I don't see the Broncos going into San Diego this week, after a bye and beating the Chargers. Phillip Rivers should have a large game. 37-34 final score. Could Denver be a team which starts the season 5-0 and fails to miss the playoffs? I think so.

Philly @ Chicago- The Eagles defense will blitz, blitz, blitz against Jay Cutler and the Bears. Cutler had 5 interceptions against the 49'er's and even if Westbrook is finished for the Eagles, Philly wins this game and stays in the hunt for a playoff birth.

Monday Night
Tennessee @ Houston- This should be a high scoring matchup next week. The smoking hot running back, Chris Johnson, from the Titans who has rushed for 500 yards and 6 scores in the last three games against high flying Matt Schuab and Andre Johnson of the Texans. I believe the Titans are grounded and Houston after a bye week prove they were worthy when they pulled withing 3 of Indy a week ago, Houston wins.
































Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Thanks Junior

Thanks for nothing. For the first time since the 2002 Super Bowl, I wagered on a game the Bucs played. I had a 5 team parlay which pays 20:1 and I had The Cardinals +3, the under 53 on the Saints/Panthers, the Panthers +14, Seahawks -10 and of course, the Packers -10. Of all the weeks to finally win a game, it had to be this week. For the third week in a row, I went 8-5 (90-39 overall). I won't repeat that this week, well, because there are finally 15 games this week as the NFL starts playing Thursday night games down the stretch.

Before I make this weeks picks, regular readers know that I call out Madison Avenue advertising campaigns on this blog. I've got to call out Anheuser Busch on this horrible, Tailgate tested, Tailgate approved campaign. First it was the Grooler, (combination grill/cooler) then it was the Foozie (foam finger with a drink holder). Bud then trotted out the Speaker Box, a radio in something which resembles a case of Bud Light. This past week was the tipping point on the sublime with the smock for dogs which holds condiments. I have thought all along that these commercials were fake, but after speaking with the Bud rep at a local watering hole, I was informed these are in fact real items and you can purchase them on the website. The next item coming is a 3-1 condiment gun which looks like a caulk gun you load with your three favorite toppings. Stop the insanity, please. This is the company which brought us the Bud-weise-er frogs, Louie the Lizard and the Clydesdales playing football, but these last two campaigns, the "Dude" ads and this is, quite frankly embarrassing. I admit, I did think about getting the smock for my cat, because it looks as if you could get a few beers in the holes, but I realized Jasmine has no thumbs and would never be able to retrieve me refills for my empties during game day. So please Busch, from a good customer, stop these stupid advertisements. On to this weeks picks,

San Fran vs. Chicago- Both of these teams are in disarray. The 49er's started the season 3-1 and have dropped three straight. Mike Singletary will have the Niners fired up as they face his old team. 49er's win.

Jets vs Jaguars- Jacksonville has a horrible secondary, so Mark Sanchez should have plenty of chances this week. Jets win.

Denver vs. Washington Crackheads- On week 5, I predicted that Denver would be the first team in NFL history to start 5-0 and miss the playoffs. It does appear that the rest of the NFL has figured out a way to beat the Broncos as they are 1-2 in the past three weeks. This week however, as they travel east to play the Crackheads, they win easily. Washington has serious issues and only won twice, against Carolina and Tampa Bay.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincy- My bengal cat, Jasmine, is angry with me on this pick. Sure, the striped ones are playing well and will most likely make the playoffs, but they won't win in Pittsburgh this week. Cedric Benson's remarkable comeback season will take a detour as he faces the NFL's leading run defense.

Tennessee vs Buffalo- Kerry Collins was replaced at quarterback by former 1st round draft choice, Vince Young. Young has not played all that spectacular, but he has produced two wins in the last two weeks. Granted, the wins were over Jacksonville and Oakland, but this weeks opponent is not any better. The Titans win.

Minnesota vs. Detroit- Pencil in win number 8 for Favre and company. Stafford and Megatron appear to be feuding, that isn't good news for the Motor City.

New Orleans vs. St Louis- The only question here is how many touchdowns will Brees end up with on Sunday.

Miami vs. Tampa Bay- Sure, Tampa got one in the win column last week but don't expect the same result this week as Miami will have game film on Josh Freeman. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are running the wildcat to perfection and Miami wins easily.

Oakland vs. Kansas City- Does anyone really care about this game other than fantasy football players? And if your fantasy teams are depending on this game, you're in trouble. Kansas City wins.

Arizona vs Seattle- I really felt that once Matt Hasslebeck returned to the lineup, Seattle would challenge for the division title, but this team isn't going to be playing after January 3rd 2010. Arizona wins.

San Diego vs. Philly- I really felt like the Eagles were going to separate themselves in the NFC East but fell flat on Sunday night against the Cowboys. Now, they have to travel west to play the Chargers. San Diego is playing great football as of late, but Norv Turner's team always plays great in the later parts of the season. San Diego wins.

Green Bay vs. Dallas- Dallas was on the road last week in an emotional NFC East game and now, they travel to Green Bay. Green Bay has lost two tough games, their offensive line is horrible but Aaron Rodgers is airing it out and Dallas has a weak secondary. Green Bay can't afford to fall any further behind the Vikings and pull out a close win at home this week.

Indy vs. New England- This will be a great game to watch. However, Indy has played two very close games the past few weeks, failing to cover the spread. This will be the week Indy finally loses a game.

Monday night
Baltimore vs. Cleveland- How does Cleveland rate a Monday Night game? I'm in the stretch runs in my fantasy leagues and I have Ray Rice who will have a monster game against Cleveland. Baltimore wins this game by halftime.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Week 9 and any given Sunday.

That adage in the NFL is so true, any given Sunday. Last week Carolina came out of nowhere. St Louis finally put a mark in the win column, Denver fell back to earth, Miami pulled another win out of thin air, and Tennessee romped to a victory over Jacksonville. And yes, I went 8-5 for yet another week, to bring the year total to date of 82-34.

My Buccos take the field this Sunday in RayJay wearing the horrible uniforms of the past losing seasons. Those of us who watched during the 1970's-1980's will be treated to a blast from the past this week as Junior has decided his handpicked 17th pick overall in the NFL draft is ready to start at quarterback. Josh Freeman will not win this week and most likely won't win the rest of this year. Glazers, please, please, if this team goes 1-15 or 0-16, show Junior the door, don't risk the high draft choices of the upcoming 2010 offseason. The Bucs lose this game as the Packers are pissed after losing to Lord Favre last week.

Crackheads vs. Falcons- Atlanta came close to beating the Saints last Monday night but couldn't turn opportunity into points. Washington is a bad team, and Atlanta is at home. Falcons win.

Arizona vs. Chicago- Talk about two teams which have no direction, this is it. I'm going with Chicago at home.

Baltimore vs Cincy- Cincy is making their playoff push, this game will be a 50 point total game.
Cincy wins.

Houston vs. Indy- Houston is coming into the most important game of the year so far for them. I'm predicting this will be the week Indy finally loses a game.

Miami vs. New England- New England coming off a bye week after winning their last two games by 70 points? Are you kidding me?

Kansas City vs. Jacksonville- Jacksonville wins.

Carolina vs. New Orleans- That logo on the Saints helmets is the Fleur Des Lis. The tri pointed image of the Lily usually associated with French monarchs. That tri pointed image isn't for the Father, Son and Holy Ghost, but rather Brees, Colston and the defense. Carolina last week might have won in Arizona, but no chance this week against the Saints in the Superdome.

Detroit vs. Seattle. Both teams are a wreck. Seattle wins easily.

Tennessee vs. San Fran. Vince Young was under center this past week and they cracked the winless circle. However, Nancy Pelosi's favorite team wins this weekend.

San Diego vs. New York Football Giants. The Giants lept out to a 5-0 record after playing weak teams and have now lost three in a row. Phillip Rivers will light up the Giants secondary and come away with a win in the Meadowlands.

Dallas vs. Philadelphia. Philly is clicking on all cylinders. Dallas's secondary sucks. DeSean Jackson lights it up for 3 touchdowns. As I said last week, Philly is on it's march for a playoff spot.

Monday night
Pittsburgh vs. Denver. Do you remember my prediction two weeks ago that the 5-0 Denver Broncos will be the first 5-0 team to miss the playoffs? Pittsburgh wins.