Does a 3-1 start mean playoffs?

Not really, but history shows the odds are in the Bucs favor. 8 times the Bucs have started the first 4 games 3-1 or better and 6 times the Bucs have made the playoffs, that's a 65% record.
The two times the Buccaneers have started 3-1 and have failed to make the playoffs were in 1990 and 1992. 1990 was Ray Perkins last year and as the Bucs started 3-1, they finished 5-11 and were painful to watch. There was very little talent on that team. Vinny Testaverde was on the squad but he had no one surrounding him. In 1992, Sam Wyche came to town and started 3-1 but finished 4-12. Vinny had a bit more talent around him with Reggie Cobb running for 1100 yds and 9 scores while Lawrence Dawsey (FSU grad) and Mark Carrier combined for almost 120 receptions, but only 5 scores. Another team which was painful to watch.

The Bucs history from the mid 1980's to late 1990's is easy to forget so let's look at the 6 years the Bucs made the playoffs after starting 3-1 or better. Four times the Bucs won their division and twice they made the playoffs as wildcard participants.

1979- started 4-0, finished 10-6. Division Champions. (won the NFC Central because of a better conference record than Chicago which also finished 10-6)

This was the season which cemented me as a Bucs fan forever. I remember the criticism of Doug Williams as being he threw the ball too hard. If you liked defense, this was a fun team to watch as they gave up the leagues least points, 237. There wasn't much offense. My hero, Doug Williams, didn't have much to work with. Ricky Bell and Jerry Eckwood ran the ball and the tight end Jimmie Giles was the main target. But, unknown to these players nearly 30 years ago, they were laying the blueprint for Bucs ball in the future, defense first. This team advanced all the way to the NFC Championship game, but lost 9-0 to the Los Angeles Rams, who eventually were routed by the Steelers 31-19 in the Super Bowl.

1997- started 4-0, finished 10-6. Wildcard.

This was the first season of the uniform changes for the Buccaneers from the orange creamsicle look with Bucco Bruce on the helmet to the current Pewter and red with the battle flag pirate look. I love the retro, but the current uniforms are a MAJOR upgrade. Quickest way to get to the playoffs, is a uniform change. (see future post)
Trent Dilfer threw for 2500 yards and 21 scores this season, led the Bucs to a wildcard playoff win 20-10 against Detroit but ultimately lost the divisional game 21-7 in Green Bay.

2000- started 3-1, finished 10-6. Wildcard.

Shaun King got the starting nod after leading the Bucs to the NFC Championship game against the Rams in the previous season. King threw for 2700 yards and 18 touchdowns. The Bucs underwent a 4 game losing streak during the season. Tampa loses to Philly in the Divisional game 21-3.

2002- started 3-1, finished 12-4 (best season record) Division Champions, Super Bowl Champions

This was the first year of the NFL realignment, creating 4 divisions in each Conference. The Buccaneers were moved from the former NFC Central to the NFC South division aligned with Carolina, New Orleans and Atlanta. Brad Johnson threw for 3000 yards and 22 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. The running game only scored 6 touchdowns for the regular season.
In the playoffs, Tampa destroyed San Fransisco 31-6 at home, Philly 27-10 at Philadelphia and Oakland 48-21 in Super Bowl XXXVII.

2005- started 4-0, finished 11-5. Division Champions.

The Bucs started the season 4-0 with a new running back, Carnell (Cadilliac) Williams, who set the 3 game rushing record for a rookie. Brian Griese started the season as 5-1 as a starter but was lost to a season ending injury in the Miami Dolphins game. Chris Simms came on to assume starting QB duties and the Bucs finished the season 11-5. The Bucs lose the game late to the Washington Redskins on a questionable touchdown catch in the south endzone 17-10.

2007- started 3-1, finished 9-7. Division Champions.

In a season filled with injuries, the Bucs finally were able to give significant playing time to a fan favorite, Earnest Graham. Graham was a player known as Mr. August, who received copious playing time during preseason but never during regular season. After injuries to RB Carnell Williams and Michael Pittman, Graham responded with a 898 yard and 10 touchdown effort.
New free agent acquisition quarterback Jeff Garcia threw for 2400 yards and 13 touchdowns, but missed games late in the season. Tampa played the eventual World Champion New York Giants in Tampa during a Divisional playoff game and lost, 24-14.

So, if history is on the Bucs side, we might see the Bucs in the post season this year.