Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Road Rules week 13.

week 12 saw my picks at 10-6 to bring the season long record to 123-52. I believe that record is still above any of the "experts" over at ESPN, though Merril Hoge is close. We are in the stretch run for the playoffs and injuries are mounting as some teams scrap to get an invitation to play in the NFL's second season. This week, I believe we will see a road team domination.

Thursday night
Jets @Toronto Bills. The Bills play their first regular season game north of the border at the Rogers Center in Toronto. Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez is nursing a knee injury and I'm going with the Bills to win this "home" game.

Philly @ Atlanta. Matt Ryan will miss this weekends start with Chris Redman filling in for Atlanta this week. Redman was efficient last week versus the Bucs but will see a myriad of blitz packages this week. Sure, the Eagles are going to go without DeSean Jackson most likely this week(concussion), but Jason Avant should fill in nicely. Eagles continue their march towards the NFC East title.

St Louis @ Chicago. This week Jay Cutler might finally have some time to set up and throw the ball as the Rams have no pass rush. Good thing, because the Bears don't have an offensive line. Bears win at home. Matt Forte, 131 combined yards and 1 touchdown.

Detroit @ Cincinnati. Cincy didn't put as many points on the board last week against their divisional rival, but that should change this week. Jasmine's favorite team, the Bengals, are 13 point favorites this week and are 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in non conference games in the past two years. Cincy puts the pedal to the metal and wins by 20.

Oakland @ Pittsburgh. Big Ben should be back this week. Da Raydahs have had 10 days to get ready for the Steelers. Bruce "the Polish Popgun" Gradkowski will be figured out by the Steelers defense and another ugly showing by the Raiders is in store.

Tennessee @ Indy. This should be a great game this week. The Titans have won 5 in a row, and the Colts have yet to lose one this year. However, Tennessee is 9-2 against the spread when they've have 2 or more consecutive wins in the past 2 years. Indy is 13-30 ATS over the past 5 years against teams with losing records. The Colts finally lose this week.

Denver @ Kansas City. Yes, Denver won large, 26-6 against the Giants on Turkey Day, but the Giants are in a downward spiral. Denver is 0-7 ATS in the past 7 games when they were favored by 3.5-9.5 points and 1-8 ATS against teams with a losing record. Kansas City has nothing to lose. I'm taking Kansas City to beat their division rival outright behind Jamaal Charles running strong. Charles has 90 yards and two scores.

New England @ Miami. Did you all get to watch my preseason Super Bowl pick Saints put that beat down on the Pats? That upcoming NFC Championship game between the Vikings and Saints is going to be one for the ages. Miami is 0-6 against the spread in week 10-13 over the past 2 seasons. Brady and company are pissed off and will wear out the young corners of the Miami Mullets.

New Orleans @ Washington Crackheads. This is a classic trap game. The Saints are coming off an emotional win on a short week and traveling to an outdoor stadium against a weak team. Washington has covered the spread in the last three games and early in the week, they are a double digit underdog. I'll take Washington and the points but the Saints win.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina. Carolina's starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme has a broken finger on his throwing hand and it appears that the third year Oregon State product, Matt Moore will most likely start at quarterback. Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams are both listed early in the week as questionable. The Bucs are 6.5 point underdogs and on the road for the second straight game. The Bucs win this game outright this week. I predict 4 turnovers by the Panthers, and the Bucs score 30 points for win number two of the year.

Houston @ Jacksonville. These two teams are the poster children for those teams which are classic underachievers. Matt Schaub has a monster day against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Houston hangs around in the wildcard chase for another week.

San Diego @ Cleveland. San Diego comes in on fire, to the city where the river caught on fire, after running off 6 consecutive wins. Cleveland doesn't have a prayer.

Dallas @ New York Football Giants. Sure, the calender reads December and that should signal the annual meltdown for the Dallas Cowboys. It won't start this week against a Giants team which started 5-0 and is 1-5 in subsequent games in the past 6 weeks. The Cowboys meltdown starts next week as they face the Chargers, @New Orleans, @Washington, and Philly, the final month of the season. Cowboys win this week.

San Francisco @ Seattle. San Fran is still in the hunt for a wildcard spot as the Giants, Cowboys, and Falcons future is uncertain. Seattle has been horrible this season and seemingly, key players have been on the injury report week in and week out all season long. San Fran hangs around this week, wins and stays in the hunt.

Minnesota @ Arizona. Will Warner play this week? Will Favre finally have a bad game this season? Will I ever win the Florida Lottery? All three of these are valuable and important questions. The Vikings are having a season for the ages with a quarterback of the ages. Warner sits, Favre plays and I don't win the lotto again this week. Minnesota needs to keep pace with the Saints for home field advantage through the playoffs. Vikings win a close one, 37-31.

Monday Night
Baltimore @ Green Bay. Pittsburgh's slide over the past 3 games, have allowed Baltimore to get back into the thick of the AFC wildcard playoff hunt. Green Bay has won 3 in a row after losing in Tampa to the previous winless Bucs. Baltimore has more to lose in this game than Green Bay. Ray Lewis will have the Raven's defense amped up and they will win a close one on Monday Night Football, 23-19.